The New World launch rush is over and Amazon is focusing on exploits. Players are now able to take the time to ask important questions like: What if I killed a thousand bears and followed the drop rates to reverse engineer how the luck stat works?
Reddit user SkyLineOW explained that luck acts in a similar way to a D&D skill-check modifier. A 100,000-sided die is used to determine the amount of loot that you will receive from a drop. Your luck score is then added to the result as an additional bonus. If you have 1,000 luck, you can roll 1,000, which is an unlucky zero plus your bonus, and 101,000, which is a lucky natural 100,000 plus the bonus. A 1,000 luck bonus will give you a 1% chance to get a certain type of loot if you roll more than 100,000. New World players have been puzzled by a question: Does this mean that items that claim they offer a “+1% chance of rare items” will increase your luck bonus by 1,000?
SkyLineOW did not think so. They believed that the items’ “+1%” chance added 100 to a player’s luck score, and not 1,000. SkyLineOW began to test their theory after confused players believed that luck was “bugged” and didn’t work because they didn’t get the drops they wanted. They “drove the Boars of Edengrove to extinction” and kept track of what they dropped.
SkyLineOW claims that they killed 571 boars in their first experiment. According to the unofficial New World Database resource, they learned that in order to obtain a legendary hide from a Boar, they had to score at least 101,150 on their loot roll. The luck bonus they received was 4,390. They did not have luck boosting items. Their lowest roll was 4,390 and their best was 104,390. Their chance of rolling over 101,150 was 3.23%, according to datamining.
Legendary hides fell 19 times out of 571 dead boars for a drop rate of 3.33%. SkyLineOW observed that this is very close to their prediction of 3.23%. This is close enough to indicate that things were going as expected.
They put on luck-enhancing gear and calculated, using their “1% =100 luck” assumption, that they now had an 9,590 luck bonus. This should have led to an 8.44% legendary hide rate. They saw a 7.5% drop in their kill rate after killing 573 more boars. That’s close. SkyLineOW would have had many, many more legendary hides if 1% really translated to 1,000 as some players believed.
Luck is working. However, luck-granting items don’t work as well as people expected. All it took to prove it was the lives over a thousand fake boars.
However, the question of how luck works is still open to debate. The exact calculation of luck will remain a mystery unless Amazon does a deeper dive. SkyLineOW claims that the New World luck bonus calculator, which uses the conversion of 1% to 100, is practical. Although it doesn’t exactly match their calculations, they are close enough to say that it doesn’t really matter which one is right.